10 yield bond rate -
From the chart, we can see that US 10 YEAR BOND rate keep increasing. So, what's the impact to economy? Basically, the increase of 10 year bond rate possible to caused the below-
1) Inflation - (Reflected in shares price - shares price will drop)
2) Economy growth - Gold price drop
3) Others
Recently, US government has approved 1.9 trillions stimulus package to help the economy.
So, will 1.9 trillions causing inflation? The answer is it depends who is buying the bonds. If other government or private sector bought all the bonds, it will not causing any inflation because the total money is not increasing. Whereas, if the bonds buy from Federal Reserve System (Fed), then it will caused the inflation, FED will print money and buy the bonds and caused the total money increasing.
In 2020, US government also issue a unlimited stimulus package and FED print the money to buy the bond and causing the amount of money increase. But due to Covid-19, these amount of money money flow is slow - 货币流通速度降慢) doesn't causing any side effects. This year, US government again approved 1.9 trillions stimulus package, and FED need to print more money to buy the bond. In year 2021, economy recovery, money flow will become normal, so it might have side effect of printing the money. The correct way for FED in 2021, FED will need to tighten the money supply (货币供应,) but if this year FED tighten the money supply this will cause bond rate going up and will cause economic crisis. What if this year FED didn't tighten the money supply? It will cause high inflation in the world.
Inflation coming in year 2022 , the 1st sector affected is Tech stock. Tech stock dropped significantly when the up interest rate news coming out. The drop of interest rate will benefit to Tech stock whereas if the interest rate up, it will affect tech stock.
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